Pheu Thai gears toward amnesty-Moves are already afoot to bring back Thaksin

[StrontiumDog]

Bangkok Post : Pheu Thai gears toward amnesty

Pheu Thai gears toward amnesty

Moves are already afoot to bring back Thaksin

• Published: 5/07/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

The Pheu Thai Party looks set to consolidate its power as a majority government with more than 300 House seats to smooth the path for exiled former prime minister and its de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra to return home, a party source said.


Sanoh Thienthong, left, of Pheu Thai puts his arm around the shoulders of Sanan Kachornprasart, right, chief adviser to the Chartthaipattana Party, as they join potential prime ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra at a press conference announcing the formation of a five-party coalition. SOMCHAI POOMLARD

The source said the party will use its numbers in the House of Representatives to ensure smooth passage of legislation to grant amnesty for Thaksin's 2008 corruption conviction, which would enable him to come home.

The party is now trying to poach MPs from two main factions inside the Bhumjaithai Party led by Somsak Thepsuthin and Sora-at Klinprathum to have the desired number of at least 300 seats.

Four political parties - Chartthaipattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, Phalang Chon Party and Mahachon - have now agreed to join Pheu Thai to form a coalition government with 299 House seats combined.

The source said Pheu Thai is also seeking to control three major ministries - the Foreign, Defence and Interior ministries - which are crucial to bringing Thaksin back to Thailand.

However, the source said the party would tread carefully and not rush the plan to bring Thaksin back home considering that his opponents would come out in opposition to his return, which could rock the stability of the new government.

"The party will have to wait for the right timing when the new government becomes strongest with the support of more than 300 House seats to ensure the passage of legislation related to the granting of amnesty is plain sailing," the source said.

Pheu Thai will also need to be sure that its coalition partners will be given the cabinet seats they desire to guarantee government stability.

The Bhumjaithai Party, which looks likely to be on the opposition bench, is now facing possible dissolution as there have been complaints of election fraud against the party.

If Bhumjaithai is dissolved, the situation in parliament would be even more favourable to Pheu Thai as the opposition camp would be too weak while the government would be more stable. Then, it should be the right time to grant amnesty to Thaksin and bring him home, the source said.

This scenario may take one to two years or even a full four-year term in office to materialise, but it is not too long and is seen to be "worth the wait", the source said.

Before the right timing comes, the top priority for the new government will be to tackle the economic woes to sustain the government's popularity, the source said.

The source also said Pheu Thai list MP Mingkwan Saengsuwan has emerged as a strong favourite for the foreign minister portfolio given his tact and finesse, his command of English and his reputation abroad.

ACM Sumet Phomanee, Thaksin's Class 10 friend from the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School, appeared to be a favourite for the defence portfolio while Pol Gen Pracha Promnok, Pheu Thai's chief adviser and its No.5 candidate on the party list, has emerged as the strongest contender for the interior portfolio, the source said.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai No.1 list candidate Yingluck Shinawatra, along with leaders and a representative of three political parties, yesterday held a press conference at SC Park Hotel to confirm that they would form a new coalition government to run the country.

Also present were Maj Gen Sanan Kachornprasart, Chartthaipattana's chief adviser; Wannarat Channukul, leader of Chart Pattana Puea Pandin; and Chao Maneewong, leader of the Phalang Chon Party. The Mahachon Party did not send its representative to attend the press conference.

Ms Yingluck, potentially Thailand's first female prime minister, said a coalition government with 299 House seats from the five parties would be enough to form a stable government to run the country effectively.

However, Pheu Thai would have to wait for the confirmed election results of the Election Commission before proceeding with the formation of the new coalition government

She reiterated that Bhumjaithai would not be invited to join the coalition government.

She said the new government's first task would be to press ahead with a plan to foster national reconciliation.

It will be left to the Truth for Reconciliation Commission chaired by Kanit na Nakorn to continue with national reconciliation efforts and more independent committees will also be set up to help with the work, Ms Yingluck said.

The new government would also take urgent steps to fix the economic problems and tackle the rising prices of consumer products, to restore relations with foreign countries, to boost the morale of government officials and to eliminate corruption, she said.

She said the new government will also hold celebrations to mark His Majesty the King's 84th birthday on Dec 5.

THE POWER SHARE

Pheu Thai's likely prime ministerial candidate Yingluck Shinawatra has announced the initial coalition which will form a 299-seat government.

GOVERNMENT 299
- Pheu Thai 265
- Chartthaipattana 19
- Chart Pattana Puea Pandin 7
- Phalang Chon 7
- Mahachon 1

OPPOSITION 201
- Democrats 159
- Bhumjaithai 34
- Rak Thailand 4
- Matubhum 2
- Rak Santi 1
- New Democrat
Party 1

[StrontiumDog]

Bangkok Post : Priorities for a Yingluck govt

EDITORIAL

Priorities for a Yingluck govt

• Published: 5/07/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

There is still work to accomplish and formalities to perform, but it seems that our next prime minister is to be Yingluck Shinawatra. As the No.1 candidate who led the Pheu Thai Party to victory in Sunday's elections, she is first in line to organise a government. There seems little doubt she can do that, since the party won a parliamentary majority and has four smaller parties as allies, harnessing at least 299 seats in the House of Representatives.



She will be the first woman to serve as prime minister in Thailand. She deserves the respect due to a national political leader, and in turn she owes diligence and good governance to the country.

Ms Yingluck obviously ran an effective campaign, but she has been long on promises and short on specifics. As soon as she is confirmed in office, as the Americans put it so colourfully, the "rubber will meet the road" and she will be judged on performance rather than her image.

On the campaign trail she always had two subjects at hand. The economy and national reconciliation are doubtless the most important topics for the nation, and the soon-to-be prime minister Yingluck will have to take decisive measures on both.

For almost every conceivable reason, she must concentrate on the economy and leave the entire task of reconciliation to others.

In the waning days of the campaign, Ms Yingluck began to emphasise an eminently sensible policy which she must follow up on. That is to widen the power of the Truth for Reconciliation Commission, enlarge the scope of the process and allow independent bodies to do their job. To take any other course is to create or prove the one impression she cannot afford: that she is the puppet of her elder brother Thaksin, the fugitive former prime minister.

The outgoing government of acting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva failed to help the country to reconcile after last year's riots, military attacks and 92 deaths. Ministers hobbled their own reconciliation committees. Notably, the main TRC under former attorney-general Kanit na Nakorn is at a standstill.

The army and civilian security forces have stonewalled its requests for witnesses and documents. Ms Yingluck's role here is to insist on the release of such information, but to allow Mr Kanit and others to decide their importance.

Mr Abhisit stated in his concession speech on Sunday that the Democrats, as the opposition, intend to be tough and oppose amnesty for politicians.

The outgoing premier would do well to bear in mind the British parliamentary term for his role: loyal opposition. The incoming government will deserve tough scrutiny at every moment, but its duty is to the country.
The Democrats' last term in opposition led to harmful stands - on relations with Cambodia, on support for riotous protests and more.

The question of amnesty for banned politicians is not a matter of vital national interest. The return of Thaksin with a full political pardon is a potentially dangerous issue for this next prime minister to try to tackle through political means, especially now, at the beginning of her term.

Many people still remember the return of ex-dictator Thanom Kittikachorn from exile - and the murderous violence and further dictatorships it spawned.

Ms Yingluck deserves a chance to tackle more important matters. She should start with the economy. Her own Pheu Thai and red shirt constituents will benefit, but more importantly, so will the country.

[Loy Toy]

I doubt Thaksin will return to Thailand until the inevitable unspeakable happens.

[StrontiumDog]

• OPINION
• JULY 5, 2011

Puea Thai's Choice

Yingluck Shinawatra must tread carefully with the Thai military, palace and other opponents of her brother Thaksin.

By PAVIN CHACHAVALPONGPUN

After the Puea Thai Party's victory in Thailand's election Sunday, the main question is whether the army and the traditional elite will refrain from overturning a result which they clearly find unpalatable. If they refuse to accept the democratic outcome, a Puea Thai government could be short-lived. The military removed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006 and the courts removed Prime Ministers Samak Sundaravej and Somchat Wongsawat in 2008.

A new coup, whether military or judicial, would only prolong the Thai political stalemate. The pro-Thaksin "red shirt" movement would probably return to the streets to protest. This could lead to another violent confrontation between the protesters and the state authorities.

A less damaging option for the elite is to forge a peace pact with the Puea Thai Party. In the past week, rumors swirled around Bangkok about a secret meeting between representatives of the Puea Thai Party and the palace in the Bruneian capital, Bandar Seri Begawan, to strike a deal in case Puea Thai did win the election.

Now dubbed the "Brunei Declaration," this deal supposedly entails the military's promise not to interfere in politics and to allow the Puea Thai to form a government without any hindrance. In return, the Puea Thai will not seek revenge against the coup makers, intrude in military affairs or remove royalist Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha from his current position as army chief.

Other items in the deal could include a pledge by Puea Thai not to push for the reform of the lese-majeste law, Article 112 of the Thai criminal code. In the past few years, this law has been increasingly exploited as a political tool. The military, like other political actors, has employed lese-majeste charges to defend its own power interests in the name of protecting the monarchy. So the reform of Article 112 could threaten the military's long-held political role.


Associated Press Yingluck Shinawatra (center) announced a five-party coalition Monday.

Perhaps because of the deal, the military decided to release a statement less than 24 hours after the election that indicates its endorsement of the result. In fact, the military became noticeably less antagonistic toward Puea Thai during the last week of the election campaign. Gen. Prayuth stressed that the army was politically neutral and rejected coup rumours if the Puea Thai came to power: "There will be no coup. The military should not be dragged into political games and it cannot take sides." This contradicts his earlier hostile position, particularly during a televised appearance in which he implicitly warned voters against supporting the Puea Thai Party.

Despite this turnaround, Gen. Prayuth has been very political since he took up the post of army chief in October last year. While Puea Thai's prime minister nominee Yingluck Shinawatra has been conciliatory toward the tough army chief, other Puea Thai members, including Mr. Thaksin, are more direct in their criticism of the military. He told the media on election night, "The powerful [military] elite must respect the election result if they want Thailand to move forward." Thus, it is crucial for the Puea Thai to build a working relationship with the army as part of preventing the latter from entering in politics.

Dealing with the military is not the only uphill task for Ms. Yingluck. She will need to reach out to other establishment figures, or even co-opt them into the coalition, to ensure the longevity of her regime. It has been reported that Ms. Yingluck has already begun to search for credible figures to join her cabinet who have the trust of, and the access to, the palace. These figures will serve as a channel for the Puea Thai to connect with royal circles. A good relationship with the palace will automatically help the Puea Thai maintain good ties with the military.

But all these optimistic scenarios may evaporate if the Puea Thai jeopardizes its position by allowing Mr. Thaksin to return to Thailand later this year. The Puea Thai's victory was already perceived as a slap in the face for the army. A further push from Mr. Thaksin for his amnesty on corruption charges will undoubtedly irritate his opponents in high places. It will offer an opportunity for his enemies to question the legitimacy of the Puea Thai. Ultimately, they could continue to use the same allegation of the Puea Thai working to protect the interests of only one man.

Chaichana Inkachot of Ramkhamhaeng University says that the amnesty is probably the Puea Thai's most vulnerable point. If the new government seeks an amnesty for banned politicians, including Mr. Thaksin, this will provoke angry protests from the anti-Thaksin groups. Time will tell if Ms. Yingluck is just a pretty face or if she is serious about leading her country out of the political crisis which has been persistent during the past five years.

Given that Thailand has become intensely polarized, Ms. Yingluck's honeymoon period will be short. She is surrounded by those who are ready to attack her if she takes a wrong step. For Thailand's sake, she has to tread carefully.

Mr. Pavin is a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.


Pavin Chachavalpongpun: Puea Thai's Choice - WSJ.com

[StrontiumDog]

Thai Calm May Rely on Delaying Thaksin Return - Bloomberg

Thai Calm May Rely on Delaying Thaksin Return

By Daniel Ten Kate - Jul 5, 2011 11:19 AM GMT+0700


Pheu Thai party supporters celebrate at Pheu Thai headquarters, in Bangkok on July 3, 2011. Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg


Play Video
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hana Microelectronics Pcl Chief Executive Officer Richard Han talks about the impact of Thailand's elections on the country's economy and business community. The party linked to exiled Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra won a parliamentary majority, making it more difficult for his opponents to overturn the result as they have done in the last three elections. Han speaks from Bangkok with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia."(Source: Bloomberg)


Play Video
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asia Studies in Singapore, talks about Thailand's political future following the weekend elections. The party linked to exiled Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra won a parliamentary majority, making it more difficult for his opponents to overturn the result as they have done in the last three elections. Montensano speaks with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)


Pheu Thai party leader Yingluck Shinawatra. Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg

Thaksin Shinawatra’s allies plan to use their electoral mandate to address what they call injustices committed since a coup in 2006. Moving too fast risks conflict with the Thai military that overthrew them.

The win for Pheu Thai, led by Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, boosted stocks and the currency as investors shed their pre-election jitters and hailed the formation of a stable government. The incoming administration must overcome resistance from Thailand’s military, courts and bureaucracy as it seeks to allow Thaksin to return from a three-year exile and change the constitution to reduce the power of non-elected institutions.

“The biggest risk is that they move aggressively, that they say ‘We have a mandate and will use that to roll back what’s happened since the 2006 coup,’” said Andrew Stotz, a Bangkok-based strategist at Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Pcl, the nation’s largest stock brokerage. “If he goes too fast and aggressive, the protests will start.”

Yingluck, who has deflected questions on whether Pheu Thai would promote amnesty for Thaksin, called for “unity and reconciliation” at a press conference yesterday in Bangkok at which she announced the formation of a five-party coalition. Thaksin, who has lived in Dubai since fleeing a 2008 jail term for abuse of power, told reporters there that he had no immediate plans to go back.

Golfing Thaksin

“I should be part of the solution, not the problem,” Thaksin, 61, said, adding that he was considering a new career as a professional golfer. Asked if he aimed to reclaim more than $1 billion in wealth seized by the government after his ouster, Thaksin replied: “Don’t worry about it. I’m not starving.”

The prospects for stability depend on Thaksin staying away in the near future, said Kaewsan Atipho, a member of the panel that investigated his assets after the coup. Efforts to return or change the constitution in Thaksin’s favor could provoke more demonstrations, he said.

“He can get what he wants from the constitution revision,” Kaewsan said. “At that point it depends on whether people will stay home or go on the streets.”

Pheu Thai won 265 seats in the 500-seat parliament on July 3, the fifth straight time a party linked to Thaksin has won the most seats in an election since 2001. The military ousted him in 2006 on grounds he failed to respect King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 83. The monarch’s 65-year reign has seen nine coups and more than 20 prime ministers.

Appointed Senate

Thailand’s SET Index fell 0.2 percent as of 10:40 a.m. local time after posting the biggest advance in Asia yesterday. The baht, which jumped the most since February 2008 yesterday, lost 0.1 percent to 30.51 per dollar. SC Asset Corp. and M Link Asia Corp., companies controlled by Thaksin’s family, retreated after gains yesterday of more than 10 percent.

Overseas investors bought 10.7 billion baht ($351 million) more of Thai stocks than they sold yesterday, the most since Dec. 8, 2010. Credit-default swaps on Thailand fell 7 basis points to 121, according to CMA prices at 4 p.m. yesterday in London.

During the campaign, Yingluck, 44, said she would seek changes to a constitution written after the coup that established a Senate to which half the members are appointed. It also includes a clause that disbands political parties and bans all executive members for five years if one person commits election fraud.

Government Ousted

Almost a year after Thaksin’s allies won the 2007 election, the first since the coup, the article was used to disband their party and oust the government.

“The elite still have constitutional mechanisms that they can deploy,” said Chaturon Chaisang, a former cabinet minister under Thaksin and one of 220 lawmakers banned since the coup. “This is not just something in our imagination, it’s happened before. The fundamental problem is still there.”

Efforts by the last pro-Thaksin administration to change the constitution in 2008 were met with seven months of protests from his opponents, who wore yellow shirts to symbolize their loyalty to the monarchy. They seized the prime minister’s offices and stormed Bangkok’s airports as the military ignored requests from the pro-Thaksin government to disperse them.

The street action and party disbanding paved the way for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to take power in a parliamentary vote in late 2008. That has triggered protests ever since from Thaksin’s supporters, who wore red shirts.

The group’s demonstrations last year led to 91 deaths and prompted Abhisit to establish a committee to suggest constitutional changes. His administration later rejected the group’s proposals to strengthen political parties and make the Senate fully elected.

No Amnesty?

Abhisit, 46, resigned yesterday as party leader after his Democrat party lost the election. In conceding to Yingluck the night before, he said Pheu Thai shouldn’t pursue amnesty for Thaksin.

Thaksin, who founded what became Thailand’s biggest mobile- phone company, draws his support from poorer Thais in the north and northeast. They make up a majority of the population.

His opponents accused him of seeking to monopolize power during his five years as prime minister, threatening the <redacted>.

“These people continue to hate Thaksin and they don’t want him back,” said Kevin Hewison, a professor in the Department of Asian Studies at the University of North Carolina. “If there is any move that looks like he’s closer to coming back or if there’s anything they interpret as a whitewash, they will be up for the fight.”

[StrontiumDog]

Asia Times Online :: ASIA HAND : Changing of the guard in Thailand

Changing of the guard in Thailand

By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK - In a tightly scripted and richly financed campaign, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's Puea Thai party notched a majority in Sunday's highly anticipated Thai elections, handing the outgoing Democrats another humbling defeat. Despite widespread concerns of a possible post-poll coup or street upheaval, all signs so far point towards a smooth democratic transition.

While an earlier accommodation reached between the royal palace, military and Thaksin representatives to allow Puea Thai to form a government has held in the election's immediate aftermath, the potential for instability will rise in the months ahead as the party moves to implement its many campaign vows, including an amnesty in the name of national reconciliation for the criminally convicted Thaksin. (See The deal behind Thailand's polls Asia Times Online, June 30)

Led by Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's younger sister and a political novice, Puea Thai won 265 out of a possible 500 seats, outpacing widely the second-placed Democrats' 159. On Monday, Yingluck announced plans for a five-party coalition, which, if formalized, will account for 299 parliamentary seats. Those numbers could narrow after the Election Commission disqualifies an unknown number of winning candidates for electoral fraud. The commission is now weighing 190 different complaints and historically has penalized scores of candidates.

Yingluck ran on a mix of populist promises, a push for national reconciliation and her family namesake. Despite the hint of nepotism in her appointment and background, Yingluck's inexperience was sold as an asset by Puea Thai spin doctors, while local media and foreign commentators fawned over her looks, gender and polished campaign posters. Thaksin referred to Yingluck as his "clone" in press interviews from self-imposed exile in Dubai, intimating he was the brains behind her candidacy and campaign.

Nonetheless, voting patterns were consistent with past elections, where Thaksin-aligned parties dominated the populous north and northeast regions while the Democrats held sway over the capital and less-populated south. While some analysts interpreted Puea Thai's win as a popular rebuke by the rural poor against a Democrat-aligned urban elite, mappings of the result showed more clearly a geographical rather than ideological bias to the vote. Both top parties maintain formidable political machineries in their geographical strongholds.

The Democrats' electoral strategy fell short on two key fronts. The party failed to capture the rice-growing central plains region, a swing geography the party targeted while in office through populist policies, including a rice price insurance scheme it expected would win rural votes. Its loosely allied Bhum Jai Thai party, meanwhile, underperformed expectations that it would split the populous northeast region vote after breaking away from a previous Thaksin-aligned party in 2008.

The timing of the polls also militated against the Democrats. Analysts believe the party squandered an opportunity earlier this year to leverage last year's robust economic rebound from global crisis to its electoral advantage. By the time now-defeated prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva called the polls, globally driven higher prices had trickled down to Thailand's grassroots. Puea Thai campaigned on its ability to tackle inflation through a vowed 40%-75% increase in the minimum wage.

From rhetoric to reality

While Puea Thai's win was popularly portrayed as a landslide, Yingluck's coalition government is expected to be weak and potentially short-lived.

Foreign investors sold down the Thai stock market by over US$1.5 billion from when it became apparent in early May that Puea Thai was leading in opinion polls. International investment banks advised clients to sell Thai shares ahead of the election, a pre-emptive vote against a Puea Thai-led government's ability to maintain political stability and manage the economy.

With a stable transition in sight, the bourse bounced back by nearly 5% on the day after the polls. Still, economic analysts say Yingluck will be hard-pressed bureaucratically and ill-advised fiscally to implement all of the populist pledges her party made on the campaign trail, including distribution of free iPads for all eight million of the country's school students and a rice price guarantee that promises to pay nearly double current market rates.

Investment bank HSBC wrote in a post-poll report that Puea Thai's populist policies threaten to raise rather then relieve mounting inflationary pressures. The research said that increasing minimum wages would "come back to bite" Thai consumers as producers and employers inevitably passed on the higher costs and potentially hurt the country's competitiveness as a regional foreign direct investment destination.

Other analysts foresee a stability-versus-growth clash between Yingluck's economic team and the Bank of Thailand, which before the polls was poised to raise interest rates from 3% at present to 3.75% by the end of year to contain inflation. Tighter monetary policy, including a possible rate rise on July 13, would dampen prospects for the post-election, feel-good economic bounce Puea Thai clearly aims to manufacture through ramped-up populist spending.

The bigger risks, however, will be political. As part of the behind-the-scenes election deal reached with the palace and military, Thaksin reportedly agreed to refrain from intervening in military affairs, including the annual reshuffle that comes into effect in October and determines the army's leadership and rank-and-file promotions. Hints that outgoing defense minister General Prawit Wongsuwon could be reappointed under Yingluck would be consistent with the terms of that deal.

At the same time, former "red shirt" protest leaders elected on Puea Thai's party list will be expected to push for greater civilian control over military affairs and justice for the 91 deaths caused during last year's protests and military crackdown. Any push to prosecute top soldiers for the deaths would jeopardize the pre-election accommodation and put the new government on a collision course with army commander and palace favorite General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Prawit has said the military accepts the election result while Prayuth has declined to make a public comment.

Amnesty for all

Future stability will be determined largely by how hard and how fast Yingluck's government pushes for an amnesty that paves the way for Thaksin's return and rehabilitation after he was ousted in a military coup in September 2006 and later fled Thailand after a court found guilty of corruption in 2008. If Puea Thai had won a more commanding majority of 300 or more seats and thus was less reliant on coalition partners for stability, analysts believe Thaksin would have aimed to fast-track the amnesty program. Yingluck has said her government will give first priority to addressing economic problems.

People familiar with the party's pre-election plans say a new body to be formed alongside the Democrat-appointed Truth and Reconciliation Commission will be tasked with making recommendations designed for a national reconciliation referendum. That vote, the sources say, will pave the way for a general election next year in which the 111 pro-Thaksin politicians banned from politics after the 2006 coup would be eligible to run. Many Puea Thai MPs, including party leader Yingluck, are believed to serve as proxies for more influential banned politicians.

Any amnesty plan passed instead by parliament would legally require King Bhumibol Adulyadej's signature to become law. A similar push for amnesty in April 2008 during the Samak Sundaravej government sparked "yellow shirt" protests that laid siege to Government House and crippled the workings of two Thaksin-aligned administrations. Those protests climaxed in the week-long seizure of Bangkok's two international airports, a move many analysts speculated had implicit military backing.

It's unclear now whether the same anti-Thaksin forces have the wherewithal or unity of purpose to launch an equally destabilizing street movement. Recent "yellow shirt" protests targeted their once-allied Democrats and failed to galvanize significant popular support for their nationalistic agenda. Nor is it clear that the movement has the same high-level military and royal backing it once had. The group announced it will dismantle its protest site near Government House on Abhisit's departure and ahead of Yingluck taking office.

The bigger shadow over her administration will be the threat of a judicial intervention, similar to court decisions that dissolved two previous Thaksin-aligned parties in 2008. Democrat Party members hinted on the campaign trail that they would challenge the legality of a Puea Thai win on the grounds Thaksin has acted as party leader while being a banned politician. The Department of Special Investigation, meanwhile, is set to investigate whether Yingluck perjured herself as a witness in one of Thaksin's recent asset cases.

There are already signs Puea Thai plans to pre-empt those charges. An alleged leaked "red shirt" memo circulated over the Internet during Sunday's polls indicated plans to appoint new, and presumably more sympathetic, judges to top courts in the name of judicial reform. Complaints of political meddling in nominally independent institutions animated the protests that led to Thaksin's 2006 military ouster and Puea Thai moves against royally-endorsed top judges could provide the first spark of resistance to Yingluck's rule.

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.

[StrontiumDog]

Yingluck Shinawatra must distance herself from her brother | Thitinan Pongsudhirak | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Yingluck Shinawatra must distance herself from her brother

Thailand's new leader will only achieve progress if Thaksin Shinawatra stays away and she reaches out to his opponents

Thitinan Pongsudhirak

guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 5 July 2011 15.10 BST


Yingluck Shinawatra –Thaksin Shinawatra's sister – has been elected as Thailand's first female prime minister. Photograph: Apichart Weerawong/AP

As Yingluck Shinawatra has been catapulted to elected office from nowhere, Thailand faces the predicament of having to progress from its wrenching political morass that dates to the military coup in September 2006. At the centre of this will be if or how Yingluck can grow into her own person as Thailand's first female prime minister, beyond the long shadow of her deposed and exiled brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, and reach out to his opponents as a bridge-builder to mend Thailand's deep wounds of protracted conflict and turmoil.

In less than two months since she threw her hat into the ring as Thaksin's proclaimed "clone" and electoral leader of Pheu Thai party, Yingluck has surprised many from near and far. She is a novice but not naive, and ran a deft campaign. With astute handlers and well-orchestrated campaign trails, she was always on script and connected with voters from the downtrodden countryside and urban poor who formed the core of her brother's loyal fan base.

To be sure, Yingluck provides a brilliant package for her older brother in her youth, gender, appearance, relative novelty and evidently palpable political acumen. She brought freshness to the Pheu Thai scene that reinforced structural advantages from Thaksin's previous resounding electoral successes in 2001, 2005, 2006 and 2007. Most important, she quietly hailed from the Shinawatra family business with little political baggage for Thaksin's opponents to exploit.

What is imperative for Yingluck now is distance between her and her polarising brother. Thaksin's divisive rule engendered millions of loyal and resilient supporters but their collective voice is not as powerful as that of many adversaries he accumulated while in power during 2001-2006. His opponents and enemies tried time and again to depose him but to no avail. The forces unleashed during the Thaksin years have proved unstoppable. He catered for neglected swaths of the vast majority of the electorate with his pro-poor, populist programmes. Over the past decade, these previously marginalised voices have discovered that they can have a stake in the way they are governed, and have accrued a sense of upward mobility and rising expectations in Thailand's steep and stifling hierarchical order that became entrenched during the cold war.

But Thaksin's downsides were his conflicts of interest, human rights violations and two corruption convictions that have kept him abroad since 2008. Thaksin will now be tempted to view the recent election results and Pheu Thai's triumph as all about him and his legacy.

Yingluck will have to persuade her brother to stay away and keep at bay indefinitely any amnesty that could bring him home. With their vehement distrust of Thaksin, his opponents are not easily mollified. Yingluck will have to reach out with assurances in a demonstrable spirit of compromise on a mutual understanding and agreement that Thailand has suffered enough.

If he were smart and cares for his land of birth, Thaksin would allow his sister complete latitude to govern and seek peace with his enemies. If his enemies were concerned for the future of the Thai people, they would allow Yingluck to rule and make concessions and accommodation that are necessary for Thailand to move on into the 21st century.

[Panama Hat]

Oh, the hypocrisy . . .

Yingluck will have to reach out with assurances in a demonstrable spirit of compromise on a mutual understanding and agreement that Thailand has suffered enough.

[StrontiumDog]

Thaksin's return divides Thailand after vote | Reuters

Thaksin's return divides Thailand after vote



By Martin Petty
BANGKOK | Tue Jul 5, 2011 8:50am EDT

(Reuters) - The image circulating widely in Thailand's social media Tuesday had a blunt message: "Welcome home big swindler Thaksin Shinawatra."

The image of a billboard next to a highway summed up the anger felt by many Thais about the prospect of the fugitive former prime minister returning after Sunday's landslide election victory by the party he controls from self-imposed exile.

The billboard was first erected in 2008, with a message welcoming Thaksin home after he was toppled in a coup, but it had now been doctored with the words "big swindler" inserted and circulated on the Internet.

The original message and the doctored version illustrate how split Thailand is on Thaksin, a 61-year-old telecoms billionaire adored as a populist hero by millions of rural poor but loathed as a corrupt, crony capitalist by urban middle classes, powerful generals and conservative elites.

He was convicted in absentia on graft charges in 2008 and refuses to serve a two-year jail term, insisting the verdict was politically motivated by his powerful enemies.

But his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, is on the cusp of becoming Thailand's first woman prime minister, following her Puea Thai Party's win Sunday, and her brother's return has suddenly become Thailand's hottest and most contentious topic.

A five-party coalition is taking shape and economists are predicting near-term stability for Thailand, but they warn any move by Puea Thai to whitewash Thaksin and seek his return could be political suicide at this stage.

"It's not necessary to risk the stability and popularity of this new government," said Charl Kengchon, a Bangkok-based economist with Kasikorn Research Center.

"We don't know what Puea Thai's plan is for Thaksin, but they seem to be aware of the importance of stability and will prioritize other things in the short term like rolling out economic measures and fulfilling their (campaign) promises."

But Puea Thai's rural-based "red shirt" supporters, who were involved in deadly clashes with the army in Bangkok in 2010, see the election result as opening the door to their "savior" Thaksin, who they believe will again help them improve their lives.

Thaksin has been in self-imposed exile in Dubai for three years and has said he would like to be home by December to attend his daughter's wedding and for the king's birthday.

NO AMNESTY POLICY

Thaksin would be arrested and jailed if he returned without an amnesty. Puea Thai says its policy of reconciliation may include a general amnesty, but insists a Thaksin-specific amnesty has never been its policy.

But it cannot escape the issue and all sides of Thailand's political divide seem convinced it will be pursued.

Yingluck has been evasive on the subject, sticking to the party line that reconciliation and economic problems were its priority and the amnesty debate was for independent panels to decide. Thaksin said Monday he had no plans to return and was happy playing golf in Dubai.

Tuesday's Bangkok Post quoted an unidentified Puea Thai Party source as saying the amnesty would be sought when it could guarantee a bill had enough support to be approved by parliament. It could take as long as two years, but was "worth the wait," the source was quoted as saying.

But not everyone will agree.

"Thaksin was too corrupt. We can't let him come back. I support a female prime minister, but not her," said Natchapon Akararojit, a student at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Thaksin's enemies are almost certain to try to thwart an amnesty. If the issue gains traction, it could spark protests by the "yellow shirt" movement that held mass rallies undermining two pro-Thaksin governments in 2006 and 2008.

Moves are already afoot by another anti-Thaksin group to keep the powerful Shinawatra family out of politics.

Its leader, Tul Suttisomwong, has filed a complaint with the Department of Special Investigation accusing Yingluck of committing perjury in testimony she gave as part of an assets concealment case involving her brother three years ago.

Tul has admitted his motivation is to prevent Yingluck whitewashing Thaksin of his conviction.

"I'd like to make clear that I personally have no objection to any other Puea Thai leader assuming the premiership," Tul told Reuters. That view is echoed by many Thais, who view Yingluck as nothing more than a proxy.

[rubbajohnny]

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